Some Severe Storms Possible on Father's Day

Convective Outlook Radar Scope

June 15, 2019

Some Severe Storms could pop up during Father's Day unfortunately due to a change in a weather Pattern. Now, as we move into Summer, Weather patterns change from what they used to be like in the Spring. Instead of the crazy severe Weather Outbreaks and Wild Tornadoes storming across the plains that can come with a Cold Fronts and a low pressure Systems or a Dry lines, we have types of storms that basically pop up in places and could intensify quick or literally be nothing. How this new pattern works is when there is so much heat and less moisture in the atmosphere during the summer, you end up with less storms. But when there are storms, they kinda pop up in areas and depending on when they spawn or how hot or cold, windy or calm it currently is outside, they could turn severe. Its a less predictable Weather pattern for Meteorologists. When we talk about Severe Weather in this new Pattern, that doesn't mean all types of Severe Weather including tornadoes because this new weather pattern is not a favorable climate for tornadoes because of the lack of moisture and warm/cool air Fronts. Now could we have Tornadoes in the Summer? Maybe, but not likely.

Severe Storm Chances:

Will we have some sort of Thunderstorm Tomorrow? Most likely. Now, because of the new weather pattern, we can't be sure when storms will develop tomorrow. So for our best shot at getting Severe Weather in DFW, we would need:

--Storms to hold off and form during the afternoon hours where storms can thrive off of the hottest part of the day.

--The Jet Stream to stay in place. (Strong wind currents in the atmosphere that help direct the path of storms.

--The CAPE must hold through the night and then break at the right time during the day.

If Storms form through the night and into the morning, then most likely there will not be severe weather or any storms later on Sunday. If the Jet Stream moves, then some of the Strong storms could miss us. If the CAPE breaks during the night or never breaks, then there will be no Cold air to mix with the heat of the day to form severe weather. So right now, we can't positive. Just stay weather aware tomorrow and stay tuned with Weather Center Forum Posts. I'll tell you this, its not going to be like last Sunday, June 9th!

More:

If you want more info on the Severe Weather potential tomorrow, check out SPC: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Hint: If the DFW area is under a Enhanced Orange Risk, then chances are better for Severe Weather. (Means the Heat and Moisture that Day are better and more favorable for Severe Weather)

If the DFW is under a Marginal Green Risk, then chances are very low for Severe Weather.

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Stay Tuned...