June 22, 2019
Another round of severe storms is expected to blow through DFW on the 3rd Sunday in a row! A Cold Front will blow through into the plains on Sunday afternoon pushing some possible severe storms across North Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. A low pressure trough will settle over the plains as well taking the place of a weak warm front that will shift upward toward the Northeast. This set up is a very complicated one, difficult to predict specifically the intensity of the storm. But key things to look for over the next 24 Hours are:
1. Instability in the atmosphere.
2. Convective Heating.
3.Wind Shear.
4. Mesocyclone conditions.
Instability is the atmosphere's level of explosive energy for storms to erupt. If the atmosphere is very unstable, it's basically a box of dynamite waiting to be set on fire. If the atmosphere is stable, storms don't have that explosive energy to erupt and become very intense quickly. --Storms do not need an unstable atmosphere necessarily to form, it's just that storms that form may take a while to become severe or they may never become severe-- The more unstable the atmosphere, the faster storms will become severe after they form.
Convective Heating is the amount of heat and moisture in the air that the clouds will need for storm development. The picture above describes the amount of it. The colors represent the risk for severe storms and the colors increase in risk in this order. Green, Yellow, Orange, Red, Pink. DFW is on the edge of the orange risk.
Wind Shear is the amount of updraft wind and horizontal wind in the atmosphere. The more wind shear, the better chances for Tornadoes because that flow of wind against each other creates rotation in the atmosphere.
Mesocyclone Conditions are certain ingredients for storm development which is very complicated and will be discussed about maybe in a Weekly Update. :)
If things become easier and more clear with the forecast and better chances for severe weather is forecasted, then a Forum Post or Blog may be sent out tomorrow.
Storm Timeline and Risks:
Because DFW is not in the orange risk does not mean we could not get severe storms. It just shows that areas in there could get more intense storms. Again, this is a very complicated storm system so there is not much information about the severe weather. SPC could upgrade the risk or move the risk many times through the evening, night hours, and in the morning. A new post will be sent out if it is changed or upgraded and if any watches come into effect. Stay Tuned...
So long,
Weather Center